[BLU/Officers] Testing, Omicron Re: Webcam for peering into things

Bill Ricker bill.n1vux at gmail.com
Wed Dec 15 14:21:34 EST 2021


Do you guys ever change Subject: line?

>  high schooler just tested positive. So much for the upcoming Disney and
business trips.

If it was a quick test, they'll want to get a slow PCR test to verify
(confirm/refute).
(And PCR for everyone in household, maybe a couple days later unless kid
has been mildly symptomatic for several days.)
Here's hoping this breakthrough infection (positive while fully vaccinated)
is asymptomatic to mild and doesn't spread (isolate, clean frequently, mask
at home).

Why PCR (slow) after Lateral Flow (quick)?
*Unless* there was a specific suspect exposure prompting the test (e.g.
notification of classmate's case or other track&trace), there's a
significant chance a fast test gives false positives (and if suspect
exposure, of false negatives).  https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Bayes+Theorem

(OTOH, Omicron's current faster wave, spread layered on top of the expected
seasonal effect, increases the "prior likelihood" of an *unsuspected*
exposure, so lowers contingent likelihood of false positive given positive
today compared to October.)

Some brands of lateral-flow fast tests are distinctly better than others,
but i haven't even seen stats for the two brands that Mass.Gov is
distributing. The widely advertised Binax is the least reliable of the ones
i've seen numbers for.

Note Bene that re Omicron, 2 jabs PP or MM or 1 jab JNJ or AZ is no longer
fully Vacc, we need recent Booster to count fully vaccinated for
Omicron. (There's
a theory that PPM or MMP may be more effective and testing shows it is NOT
LESS effective, so if one doesn't have specific concerns with switching,
switching P/M may be a good gamble.)
   (Omicron's Mutations have immunity evasion potential, but boosting the
same old immunity  makes it more effective and evasion harder so while it's
not as effective as a Omicron specific (double)jab might be it's pretty
darn effective. And it also boosts immunity to where it would have been if
we'd spaced 1st & 2d jabs wider as is now believed optimal AND resets the
decay from that higher start. Win Win Win. Get your booster if you haven't
and encourage others.)
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